Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式，选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标，以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标，综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地，利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正，采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取，构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2，占新区土地总面积的313%，主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域；新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎，大部分区域阻力值较低，间或分布高阻力值；新区生态廊道总长度18586 km，呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布，所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Catalytic oxidation of CO over Pt/Fe3O4 catalysts: Tuning O2 activation and CO adsorption

• Strong metal-support interaction exists on Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. • Pt metal particles facilitate the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. • Fe₃O₄ supports enhance the strength of CO adsorption on Pt metal particles. The self-inhibition behavior due to CO poisoning on Pt metal particles strongly impairs the performance of CO oxidation. It is an effective method to use reducible metal oxides for supporting Pt metal particles to avoid self-inhibition and to improve catalytic performance. In this work, we used in situ reductions of chloroplatinic acid on commercial Fe₃O₄ powder to prepare heterogeneous-structured Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts in the solution of ethylene glycol. The heterogeneous Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts achieved a better catalytic performance of CO oxidation compared with the Fe₃O₄ powder. The temperatures of 50% and 90% CO conversion were achieved above 260°C and 290°C at Pt/Fe₃O₄, respectively. However, they are accomplished on Fe₃O₄ at temperatures higher than 310°C. XRD, XPS, and H₂-TPR results confirmed that the metallic Pt atoms have a strong synergistic interaction with the Fe₃O₄ supports. TGA results and transient DRIFTS results proved that the Pt metal particles facilitate the release of lattice oxygen and the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. The combined results of O₂-TPD and DRIFTS indicated that the activation step of oxygen molecules at surface oxygen vacancies could potentially be the rate-determining step of the catalytic CO oxidation at Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. The reaction pathway involves a Pt-assisted Mars-van Krevelen (MvK) mechanism.     

石墨烯薄膜原子氧剥蚀行为及电阻特性

目的研究石墨烯薄膜在原子氧空间环境的适应性,为其在航天器上应用提供参考。方法采用刮涂法制备石墨烯薄膜,将石墨烯薄膜材料及石墨烯电阻传感器置于微波源原子氧设备内开展原子氧试验,原子氧剂量分别为3.0×10^20 atoms/cm2和7.5×10^20 atoms/cm^2,研究薄膜表面形貌、结构、成分及电阻性能的变化。结果采用刮涂法可制备氧含量较低的石墨烯薄膜,原子氧剂量为7.5×10^20 atoms/cm^2情况下,石墨烯薄膜的厚度损失为5.3μm,原子氧反应率为7.14×10^-25 atoms/cm^3。原子氧作用后,石墨烯薄膜中碳原子无序程度增大,C—O、—COOH官能团含量降低,C=O官能团含量增加。石墨烯电阻传感器的R0/R比值随原子氧剂量增加线性降低,0.8μm厚度薄膜可探测最大原子氧剂量为5×10^19 atoms/cm^2,增加薄膜厚度有望提高传感器的使用寿命。结论得到了石墨烯薄膜厚度损失、原子氧反应率、微观结构及电阻特性的变化规律,可为石墨烯薄膜的空间应用提供技术支撑。     

极端干旱水文年(2011年)夏季珠江口溶解氧的分布特征及影响因素研究

气候变化背景下,极端气候事件对河口生态环境的影响已引起许多研究者的关注.基于2011年夏季的调查资料,分析了珠江口在极端干旱情况下溶解氧的分布特征及其与海水稳定性、营养盐和浮游植物分解之间的关系,并对河口底层低氧区的成因进行初步探讨.调查结果发现,在珠江特低径流量的情况下,珠江口邻近海域底层明显出现低氧状态,DO的最低值仅为1.38 mg.L-1.相关性分析显示,表层水和底层水之间的ΔDO与ΔT、ΔS、ΔDIN、ΔSS和ΔPOC都达到显著相关的水平,其中ΔDO与ΔT和ΔPOC呈极显著的正相关,而与ΔS呈极显著的负相关关系.研究表明,与1999年和2009年夏季不同,2011年夏季珠江口底层低氧环境的形成主要与极端干旱气候下低径流导致河口水体滞留时间延长及颗粒态有机物质在沉降过程中的分解耗氧有关.另外,从最低DO值的角度分析,珠江口季节性缺氧程度在过去20 a间并未呈现显著的变化趋势.     

提高快速法测定C OD准确度及精密度的方法

介绍了用快速法测定COD分析中提高准确度及精密度的方法。     

V2O5/TiO2催化剂脱除NO的研究

采用了等体积浸渍法制备二氧化钛负载钒氧化物催化剂（V2O5/TiO2）,研究了V2O5负载量、反应温度、烟气流量、氨氮比以及运行时间各因素对NH3选择性催化还原NO反应（SCR）效率的影响.研究结果表明：经过500℃温度下煅烧,烟气流量为200ml/min,负载量为7wt％的V2O5/TiO2催化剂,在400℃温度下反应,NO脱除率可达70.5％.     

五日生化需氧量测定的影响因素

五日生化需氧量是一种表间接表示水体中有机物含量,是水质监测的一个重要参数。本文对水样的保存、溶解氧、pH值、温度、接种稀释水和稀释度等影响测定五日生化需氧量成败的因素进行探讨,并提出相应的解决方法。     

Effect of a high strength chemical industry wastewater on microbial community dynamics and mesophilic methane generation

A high strength chemical industry wastewater was assessed for its impact on anaerobic microbial com- munity dynamics and consequently mesophilic methane generation. Cumulative methane production was 251 mL/g total chemical oxygen demand removed at standard temperature and pressure at the end of 30 days experimental period with a highest recorded methane percentage of 80.6% of total biogas volume. Volatile fatty acids （VFAs） analysis revealed that acetic acid was the major intermediate VFAs produced with propionic acid accumulating over the experimental period. Quantitative analysis of microbial communities in the test and control groups with quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction highlighted that in the test group, Eubacteria （96.3%） was dominant in comparison with methanogens （3.7%）. The latter were dominated by Methanomicrobiales and Methanobacteriales while in test groups increased over the experimental period, reaching a maximum on day 30. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profile was performed, targeting the 16S rRNA gene of Eubacteria and Archaea, with the DNA samples extracted at 3 different time points from the test groups. A phylogenetic tree was constructed for the sequences using the neighborhood joining method. The analysis revealed that the presence of organisms resembling Syntrophomonadaceae could have contributed to increased production of acetic and propionic acid intermediates while decrease of organisms resembling Pelotomaculum sp. could have most likely contributed to accumulation of propionic acid. This study suggested that the degradation of organic components within the high strength industrial wastewater is closely linked with the activity of certain niche microbial communities within eubacteria and methanogens.